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Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia.

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Název: Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia.
Autoři: Andityas, Morsid1, Nuraini, Dian Meididewi2, Saputra, Dimas Chaerul Ekty3,4, Nugraheni, Yudhi Ratna5, Awaludin, Aan6, Viastika, Yanita Mutiaraning7, Yuliani, Herlina8, Prastowo, Joko5, Wibowo, Sarwo Edy7 sarwoedywibowo@unja.ac.id
Zdroj: Open Veterinary Journal. 2025, Vol. 15 Issue 10, p5048-5057. 10p.
Druh dokumentu: Article
Témata: Theileriosis, Disease prevalence, Economic impact, Disease progression, Tick-borne diseases, Provinces, Indonesians, Spatial arrangement
Geografický termín: Jambi (Indonesia), Indonesia
Author-Supplied Keywords: Bovine
Spatial analysis
Theileria
Tick-borne disease
Time series forecasting
Abstrakt: Background: Bovine theileriosis is a tick-borne disease that can cause economic losses worldwide, including in tropical countries such as Indonesia. In some regions of Indonesia, cattle are one of the most important commodities that play a role in sustaining economic flow, including in Jambi Province. Aim: This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial distribution, and prediction trends of the disease up to 2027 in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Methods: Retrospective data were obtained from active and passive surveillance in Jambi Province and used for calculating the prevalence, with 6,868 cases recorded between 2018 and 2023. Spatial analysis was conducted using the R software (version 4.3.1), while time series forecasting was performed using Python on the Google Colab platform. Results: The overall prevalence during the study period was 8.07% (554/6868, 95% CI, 74.2%–8.71%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s I statistic resulted in a value of 0.17, with a standard deviation of 1.17 and a p-value of 0.12, indicating that the distribution of cases was random across the province. The forecasting analysis suggests that the prevalence is likely to remain stable through 2027, within a projected range of 0%–10%. Conclusion: The current prevalence of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province is relatively low; however, the potential risk of disease introduction and spread from other regions remains. Preventive and control strategies are essential to safeguard the health of cattle and limit the transmission of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Open Veterinary Journal is the property of Open Veterinary Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Author Affiliations: 1Department of Bioresources Technology and Veterinary, Vocational College, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
2Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Animal Science, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia.
3Informatics Study Program, Telkom University, Surabaya, Indonesia.
4Center of Excellence for Motion Technology for Safety Health and Wellness, Research Institute of Sustainable Society, Telkom University, Surabaya, Indonesia.
5Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
6Animal Science Department, Livestock Production Study Program, Politeknik Negeri Jember, Indonesia.
7Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Animal Science, Universitas Jambi, Jambi, Indonesia.
8Laboratory of Animal Health and Veterinary Public Health, Jambi, Indonesia.
ISSN: 2226-4485
DOI: 10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23
Přístupové číslo: 190365281
Databáze: Veterinary Source
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  Data: Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Andityas%2C+Morsid%22">Andityas, Morsid</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nuraini%2C+Dian+Meididewi%22">Nuraini, Dian Meididewi</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Saputra%2C+Dimas+Chaerul+Ekty%22">Saputra, Dimas Chaerul Ekty</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nugraheni%2C+Yudhi+Ratna%22">Nugraheni, Yudhi Ratna</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Awaludin%2C+Aan%22">Awaludin, Aan</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Viastika%2C+Yanita+Mutiaraning%22">Viastika, Yanita Mutiaraning</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yuliani%2C+Herlina%22">Yuliani, Herlina</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Prastowo%2C+Joko%22">Prastowo, Joko</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wibowo%2C+Sarwo+Edy%22">Wibowo, Sarwo Edy</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><i> sarwoedywibowo@unja.ac.id</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Open+Veterinary+Journal%22">Open Veterinary Journal</searchLink>. 2025, Vol. 15 Issue 10, p5048-5057. 10p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Theileriosis%22">Theileriosis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Disease+prevalence%22">Disease prevalence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+impact%22">Economic impact</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Disease+progression%22">Disease progression</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tick-borne+diseases%22">Tick-borne diseases</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Provinces%22">Provinces</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indonesians%22">Indonesians</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatial+arrangement%22">Spatial arrangement</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Jambi+%28Indonesia%29%22">Jambi (Indonesia)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indonesia%22">Indonesia</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bovine%22">Bovine</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatial+analysis%22">Spatial analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Theileria%22">Theileria</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tick-borne+disease%22">Tick-borne disease</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Time+series+forecasting%22">Time series forecasting</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Background: Bovine theileriosis is a tick-borne disease that can cause economic losses worldwide, including in tropical countries such as Indonesia. In some regions of Indonesia, cattle are one of the most important commodities that play a role in sustaining economic flow, including in Jambi Province. Aim: This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial distribution, and prediction trends of the disease up to 2027 in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Methods: Retrospective data were obtained from active and passive surveillance in Jambi Province and used for calculating the prevalence, with 6,868 cases recorded between 2018 and 2023. Spatial analysis was conducted using the R software (version 4.3.1), while time series forecasting was performed using Python on the Google Colab platform. Results: The overall prevalence during the study period was 8.07% (554/6868, 95% CI, 74.2%–8.71%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s I statistic resulted in a value of 0.17, with a standard deviation of 1.17 and a p-value of 0.12, indicating that the distribution of cases was random across the province. The forecasting analysis suggests that the prevalence is likely to remain stable through 2027, within a projected range of 0%–10%. Conclusion: The current prevalence of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province is relatively low; however, the potential risk of disease introduction and spread from other regions remains. Preventive and control strategies are essential to safeguard the health of cattle and limit the transmission of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Open Veterinary Journal is the property of Open Veterinary Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: <relatesTo>1</relatesTo>Department of Bioresources Technology and Veterinary, Vocational College, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>2</relatesTo>Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Animal Science, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>3</relatesTo>Informatics Study Program, Telkom University, Surabaya, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>4</relatesTo>Center of Excellence for Motion Technology for Safety Health and Wellness, Research Institute of Sustainable Society, Telkom University, Surabaya, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>5</relatesTo>Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>6</relatesTo>Animal Science Department, Livestock Production Study Program, Politeknik Negeri Jember, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>7</relatesTo>Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Animal Science, Universitas Jambi, Jambi, Indonesia.<br /><relatesTo>8</relatesTo>Laboratory of Animal Health and Veterinary Public Health, Jambi, Indonesia.
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