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The impact of inter-annual weather variations on energy storage and flexible generation – a UK case study

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Název: The impact of inter-annual weather variations on energy storage and flexible generation – a UK case study
Autoři: Öberg, Simon, 1988, Johnsson, Filip, 1960, Odenberger, Mikael, 1977
Zdroj: Energy. 335
Témata: Energy systems modeling, Gas turbines, Battery storage, Hydrogen storage, Inter-annual variations
Popis: Traditionally, energy systems modeling has relied on a single ‘representative’ meteorological year as basis for modeling of future energy systems. However, with growing shares of weather-dependent electricity generation, accounting for inter-annual variability has become increasingly important. This study applies a three-step modeling framework to examine how inter-annual weather variations affect investment and operation of electricity generation and storage technologies, with a particular focus on the interplay between batteries and flexible generation, as well as associated revenue streams in a future electricity system. The results show that while the annual capacity factor for wind power influences overall investment levels – where a lower capacity factor leads to greater wind power deployment – this metric has limited relevance for the investment and use of batteries and flexible generation. Instead, short-term variability more strongly affects the optimal deployment of storage and dispatchable generation across different meteorological years. These findings highlight the necessity of high temporal resolution in capacity expansion modeling to accurately assess system adequacy under high shares of variable electricity generation. Regarding revenue streams, open-cycle gas turbines face the greatest difficulty in recovering costs via the energy-only market, underscoring the need for complementary revenue streams or market mechanisms to support their role in covering infrequent but critical energy shortfalls.
Přístupová URL adresa: https://research.chalmers.se/publication/547962
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: The impact of inter-annual weather variations on energy storage and flexible generation – a UK case study
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Öberg%2C+Simon%22">Öberg, Simon</searchLink>, 1988<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Johnsson%2C+Filip%22">Johnsson, Filip</searchLink>, 1960<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Odenberger%2C+Mikael%22">Odenberger, Mikael</searchLink>, 1977
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <i>Energy</i>. 335
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+systems+modeling%22">Energy systems modeling</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gas+turbines%22">Gas turbines</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Battery+storage%22">Battery storage</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hydrogen+storage%22">Hydrogen storage</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Inter-annual+variations%22">Inter-annual variations</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Description
  Group: Ab
  Data: Traditionally, energy systems modeling has relied on a single ‘representative’ meteorological year as basis for modeling of future energy systems. However, with growing shares of weather-dependent electricity generation, accounting for inter-annual variability has become increasingly important. This study applies a three-step modeling framework to examine how inter-annual weather variations affect investment and operation of electricity generation and storage technologies, with a particular focus on the interplay between batteries and flexible generation, as well as associated revenue streams in a future electricity system. The results show that while the annual capacity factor for wind power influences overall investment levels – where a lower capacity factor leads to greater wind power deployment – this metric has limited relevance for the investment and use of batteries and flexible generation. Instead, short-term variability more strongly affects the optimal deployment of storage and dispatchable generation across different meteorological years. These findings highlight the necessity of high temporal resolution in capacity expansion modeling to accurately assess system adequacy under high shares of variable electricity generation. Regarding revenue streams, open-cycle gas turbines face the greatest difficulty in recovering costs via the energy-only market, underscoring the need for complementary revenue streams or market mechanisms to support their role in covering infrequent but critical energy shortfalls.
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.137780
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Energy systems modeling
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Gas turbines
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Battery storage
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydrogen storage
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Inter-annual variations
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: The impact of inter-annual weather variations on energy storage and flexible generation – a UK case study
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            NameFull: Öberg, Simon
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            NameFull: Johnsson, Filip
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            NameFull: Odenberger, Mikael
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            – D: 01
              M: 01
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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            – Type: volume
              Value: 335
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Energy
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