Exploring the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term mini-grid design under different demand evolution scenarios
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| Název: | Exploring the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term mini-grid design under different demand evolution scenarios |
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| Autoři: | Gelchu, Milky Ali, 1990, Ehnberg, Jimmy, 1976, Shiferaw, Dereje, Ahlgren, Erik, 1962 |
| Zdroj: | Smart Energy. 18 |
| Témata: | Solar PV mini-grid design, Rural electrification, Demand evolution scenarios, Multi-year-adaptive design approach, Particle swarm optimization |
| Popis: | Mini-grids are essential for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, but due to uncertainty about future demand evolution in non-electrified communities, cost-optimal long-term sizing and design is particularly difficult. Standard, non-adaptive design approaches single-year and multi-year, are highly susceptible to demand evolution uncertainties. Despite potentially great advantages there is a lack of studies investigating adaptive design approaches. Thus, this study, using particle swarm optimization, explores the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term solar PV mini-grid component sizing under three demand evolution scenarios, considering the impacts of load flexibility, varying discount rates, and potential future mini-grid component cost reductions. The results show that the multi-year-adaptive approach helps to manage demand evolution challenges. It leads to significant cost-savings, up to three-quarters, in higher demand evolution scenarios, compared to multi-year and single-year approaches. These cost-savings increase with load flexibility (up to 4 % with 10 % flexibility), higher discount rates (up to 9.4 % with rates from 7 % to 20 %), and component cost reductions (up to 3.6 % per 1 % reduction). The study demonstrates how an adaptive approach can be utilized to optimize mini-grid component sizing and enhance cost efficiency. |
| Popis souboru: | electronic |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://research.chalmers.se/publication/545460 https://research.chalmers.se/publication/545460/file/545460_Fulltext.pdf |
| Databáze: | SwePub |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | Mini-grids are essential for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, but due to uncertainty about future demand evolution in non-electrified communities, cost-optimal long-term sizing and design is particularly difficult. Standard, non-adaptive design approaches single-year and multi-year, are highly susceptible to demand evolution uncertainties. Despite potentially great advantages there is a lack of studies investigating adaptive design approaches. Thus, this study, using particle swarm optimization, explores the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term solar PV mini-grid component sizing under three demand evolution scenarios, considering the impacts of load flexibility, varying discount rates, and potential future mini-grid component cost reductions. The results show that the multi-year-adaptive approach helps to manage demand evolution challenges. It leads to significant cost-savings, up to three-quarters, in higher demand evolution scenarios, compared to multi-year and single-year approaches. These cost-savings increase with load flexibility (up to 4 % with 10 % flexibility), higher discount rates (up to 9.4 % with rates from 7 % to 20 %), and component cost reductions (up to 3.6 % per 1 % reduction). The study demonstrates how an adaptive approach can be utilized to optimize mini-grid component sizing and enhance cost efficiency. |
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| ISSN: | 26669552 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.segy.2025.100178 |