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Associations between dietary greenhouse gas emissions, mortality, and chronic disease risk: a prospective cohort study in Sweden

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Title: Associations between dietary greenhouse gas emissions, mortality, and chronic disease risk: a prospective cohort study in Sweden
Authors: Stubbendorff, Anna, Janzi, Suzanne, Borné, Yan, Carlbaum, Moa, Jukkola, Juulia, Ericson, Ulrika, Hallström, Elinor, Sonestedt, Emily
Contributors: Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Other Strong Research Environments, LUCC: Lund University Cancer Centre, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Övriga starka forskningsmiljöer, LUCC: Lunds universitets cancercentrum, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), EXODIAB: Excellence of Diabetes Research in Sweden, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), EXODIAB: Excellence of Diabetes Research in Sweden, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Nutrition Epidemiology, Lunds universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö, Nutritionsepidemiologi, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Diabetes - Cardiovascular Disease, Lunds universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö, Diabetes - kardiovaskulär sjukdom, Originator
Source: Environmental Challenges. 20:1-9
Subject Terms: Medical and Health Sciences, Health Sciences, Nutrition and Dietetics, Medicin och hälsovetenskap, Hälsovetenskap, Näringslära och dietkunskap, Basic Medicine, Epidemiology, Medicinska och farmaceutiska grundvetenskaper, Epidemiologi, Occupational Health and Environmental Health, Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin
Description: Background: The global food system is a major contributor to climate change, accounting for about one-third of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Shifting toward plant-based diets offers potential benefits for both planetary health and chronic disease prevention. However, epidemiological evidence linking dietary GHGE to health outcomes remains limited and inconsistent. Objective: To examine the associations between dietary GHGE and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes in a large Swedish cohort. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 22,388 adults (45–73 years) from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study. Dietary intake was assessed through a validated modified diet history method and linked to GHGE estimates using life cycle assessment data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between GHGE and disease outcomes, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 28.5 years, 11,213 deaths, 5322 CVD cases, and 4324 diabetes cases were documented through registers. Higher GHGE were consistently associated with higher risk of diabetes (p > 0.001). For all-cause and CVD mortality, moderate positive associations were observed, particularly among participants with very high GHGE. When participants who reported substantial dietary changes prior to baseline were excluded, a significant linear association was observed for cancer mortality and CVD incidence. Conclusion: Diets with higher climate impact were associated with adverse health outcomes, especially diabetes incidence. These findings suggest that climate-friendly diets may also confer health benefits. Future studies should transparently report GHGE modelling approaches and clarify the roles of specific dietary components in improving both health and environmental outcomes.
Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2025.101309
Database: SwePub
Description
Abstract:Background: The global food system is a major contributor to climate change, accounting for about one-third of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Shifting toward plant-based diets offers potential benefits for both planetary health and chronic disease prevention. However, epidemiological evidence linking dietary GHGE to health outcomes remains limited and inconsistent. Objective: To examine the associations between dietary GHGE and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes in a large Swedish cohort. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 22,388 adults (45–73 years) from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study. Dietary intake was assessed through a validated modified diet history method and linked to GHGE estimates using life cycle assessment data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between GHGE and disease outcomes, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 28.5 years, 11,213 deaths, 5322 CVD cases, and 4324 diabetes cases were documented through registers. Higher GHGE were consistently associated with higher risk of diabetes (p > 0.001). For all-cause and CVD mortality, moderate positive associations were observed, particularly among participants with very high GHGE. When participants who reported substantial dietary changes prior to baseline were excluded, a significant linear association was observed for cancer mortality and CVD incidence. Conclusion: Diets with higher climate impact were associated with adverse health outcomes, especially diabetes incidence. These findings suggest that climate-friendly diets may also confer health benefits. Future studies should transparently report GHGE modelling approaches and clarify the roles of specific dietary components in improving both health and environmental outcomes.
ISSN:26670100
DOI:10.1016/j.envc.2025.101309