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Identifying Fresh Groundwater Potential in Unconfined Aquifers in Arid Central Asia: A Remote Sensing and Geo-Information Modeling Approach

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Title: Identifying Fresh Groundwater Potential in Unconfined Aquifers in Arid Central Asia: A Remote Sensing and Geo-Information Modeling Approach
Authors: Sotnikov, Evgeny, Onglassynov, Zhuldyzbek, Kanafin, Kanat, Berndtsson, Ronny, Rakhimova, Valentina, Miroshnichenko, Oxana, Gabdulina, Shynar, Tussupova, Kamshat
Contributors: Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), MECW: The Middle East in the Contemporary World, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences, Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies (CMES), Lunds universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar, Centrum för Mellanösternstudier (CMES), Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, LTH, Departments at LTH, Department of Computer Science, Lunds universitet, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, Institutioner vid LTH, Institutionen för datavetenskap, Originator
Source: Water (Switzerland). 17(20)
Subject Terms: Social Sciences, Other Social Sciences, Environmental Studies in Social Sciences, Samhällsvetenskap, Annan samhällsvetenskap, Miljövetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap, Engineering and Technology, Civil Engineering, Water Engineering, Teknik, Samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Vattenteknik
Description: Arid regions in Central Asia face persistent and increasing water scarcity, with groundwater serving as the primary source for drinking water, irrigation, and industry. The effective exploration and management of groundwater resources are critical, but are constrained by limited monitoring infrastructure and complex hydrogeological settings. This study investigates the Akbakay aquifer, a representative area within Central Asia with challenging hydrogeological conditions, to delineate potential zones for fresh groundwater exploration. A multi-criteria decision analysis was conducted by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), supported by remote sensing datasets. To address the subjectivity of weight assignment, the AHP results were further validated using Monte Carlo simulations and fuzzy logic aggregation (Fuzzy Gamma). The integrated approach revealed stable high-suitability groundwater zones that consistently stand out across deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy assessments, thereby improving the reliability of the groundwater potential mapping. The findings demonstrate the applicability of combined AHP–GIS methods enhanced with uncertainty analysis for sustainable groundwater resource management in data-scarce arid regions of Central Asia.
Access URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202985
Database: SwePub
Description
Abstract:Arid regions in Central Asia face persistent and increasing water scarcity, with groundwater serving as the primary source for drinking water, irrigation, and industry. The effective exploration and management of groundwater resources are critical, but are constrained by limited monitoring infrastructure and complex hydrogeological settings. This study investigates the Akbakay aquifer, a representative area within Central Asia with challenging hydrogeological conditions, to delineate potential zones for fresh groundwater exploration. A multi-criteria decision analysis was conducted by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), supported by remote sensing datasets. To address the subjectivity of weight assignment, the AHP results were further validated using Monte Carlo simulations and fuzzy logic aggregation (Fuzzy Gamma). The integrated approach revealed stable high-suitability groundwater zones that consistently stand out across deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy assessments, thereby improving the reliability of the groundwater potential mapping. The findings demonstrate the applicability of combined AHP–GIS methods enhanced with uncertainty analysis for sustainable groundwater resource management in data-scarce arid regions of Central Asia.
ISSN:20734441
DOI:10.3390/w17202985