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Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
Authors: David J Price, Freya M Shearer, Michael T Meehan, Emma McBryde, Robert Moss, Nick Golding, Eamon J Conway, Peter Dawson, Deborah Cromer, James Wood, Sam Abbott, Jodie McVernon, James M McCaw
Source: eLife, Vol 9 (2020)
Publisher Information: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd, 2020.
Publication Year: 2020
Collection: LCC:Medicine
LCC:Science
LCC:Biology (General)
Subject Terms: pandemic response, coronavirus, COVID-19, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Description: As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2050-084X
Relation: https://elifesciences.org/articles/58785; https://doaj.org/toc/2050-084X
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.58785
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/221b797f2fdd40e5a02a1e3b990d7d1c
Accession Number: edsdoj.221b797f2fdd40e5a02a1e3b990d7d1c
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
Description
Abstract:As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).
ISSN:2050084X
DOI:10.7554/eLife.58785