Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections
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| Název: | Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections |
|---|---|
| Autoři: | Paul, James, Mbalawata, Isambi, Mirau, Silas, Masandawa, Lemjini |
| Informace o vydavateli: | Elsevier |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Sbírka: | NM-AIST Institutional Repository (The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology) |
| Témata: | The next-generation matrix method, SVEIHR model, COVID-19 vaccine, MCMC method |
| Popis: | A research article was published by Chaos, Solitons & Fractals Volume 166, January 2023 ; The world experienced the life-threatening COVID-19 disease worldwide since its inversion. The whole world experienced difficult moments during the COVID-19 period, whereby most individual lives were affected by the disease socially and economically. The disease caused millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. To fight and control the COVID-19 disease intensity, mathematical modeling was an essential tool used to determine the potentiality and seriousness of the disease. Due to the effects of the COVID-19 disease, scientists observed that vaccination was the main option to fight against the disease for the betterment of human lives and the world economy. Unvaccinated individuals are more stressed with the disease, hence their body’s immune system are affected by the disease. In this study, the 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 deterministic model of COVID- 19 with six compartments was proposed and analyzed. Analytically, the next-generation matrix method was used to determine the basic reproduction number (𝑅0). Detailed stability analysis of the no-disease equilibrium (𝐸0) of the proposed model to observe the dynamics of the system was carried out and the results showed that 𝐸0 is stable if 𝑅0 < 1 and unstable when 𝑅0 > 1. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the parameter identifiability was discussed. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of 𝑅0 showed that vaccination was an essential method to control the disease. With the presence of a vaccine in our 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 model, the results showed that 𝑅0 = 0.208, which means COVID-19 is fading out of the community and hence minimizes the transmission. Moreover, in the absence of a vaccine in our model, 𝑅0 = 1.7214, which means the disease is in the community and spread very fast. The numerical simulations demonstrated the importance of the proposed model because the numerical results agree with the sensitivity results of the system. The numerical ... |
| Druh dokumentu: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Popis souboru: | application/pdf |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Relation: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 |
| Dostupnost: | https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12479/2437 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12479/2437 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 |
| Přístupové číslo: | edsbas.6232B2C6 |
| Databáze: | BASE |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Paul%2C+James%22">Paul, James</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mbalawata%2C+Isambi%22">Mbalawata, Isambi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mirau%2C+Silas%22">Mirau, Silas</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Masandawa%2C+Lemjini%22">Masandawa, Lemjini</searchLink> – Name: Publisher Label: Publisher Information Group: PubInfo Data: Elsevier – Name: DatePubCY Label: Publication Year Group: Date Data: 2023 – Name: Subset Label: Collection Group: HoldingsInfo Data: NM-AIST Institutional Repository (The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology) – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22The+next-generation+matrix+method%22">The next-generation matrix method</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SVEIHR+model%22">SVEIHR model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22COVID-19+vaccine%22">COVID-19 vaccine</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22MCMC+method%22">MCMC method</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Description Group: Ab Data: A research article was published by Chaos, Solitons & Fractals Volume 166, January 2023 ; The world experienced the life-threatening COVID-19 disease worldwide since its inversion. The whole world experienced difficult moments during the COVID-19 period, whereby most individual lives were affected by the disease socially and economically. The disease caused millions of illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. To fight and control the COVID-19 disease intensity, mathematical modeling was an essential tool used to determine the potentiality and seriousness of the disease. Due to the effects of the COVID-19 disease, scientists observed that vaccination was the main option to fight against the disease for the betterment of human lives and the world economy. Unvaccinated individuals are more stressed with the disease, hence their body’s immune system are affected by the disease. In this study, the 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 deterministic model of COVID- 19 with six compartments was proposed and analyzed. Analytically, the next-generation matrix method was used to determine the basic reproduction number (𝑅0). Detailed stability analysis of the no-disease equilibrium (𝐸0) of the proposed model to observe the dynamics of the system was carried out and the results showed that 𝐸0 is stable if 𝑅0 < 1 and unstable when 𝑅0 > 1. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the parameter identifiability was discussed. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of 𝑅0 showed that vaccination was an essential method to control the disease. With the presence of a vaccine in our 𝑆𝑉 𝐸𝐼𝐻𝑅 model, the results showed that 𝑅0 = 0.208, which means COVID-19 is fading out of the community and hence minimizes the transmission. Moreover, in the absence of a vaccine in our model, 𝑅0 = 1.7214, which means the disease is in the community and spread very fast. The numerical simulations demonstrated the importance of the proposed model because the numerical results agree with the sensitivity results of the system. The numerical ... – Name: TypeDocument Label: Document Type Group: TypDoc Data: article in journal/newspaper – Name: Format Label: File Description Group: SrcInfo Data: application/pdf – Name: Language Label: Language Group: Lang Data: English – Name: NoteTitleSource Label: Relation Group: SrcInfo Data: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 – Name: DOI Label: DOI Group: ID Data: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 – Name: URL Label: Availability Group: URL Data: https://dspace.nm-aist.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12479/2437<br />https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12479/2437<br />https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 – Name: AN Label: Accession Number Group: ID Data: edsbas.6232B2C6 |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112920 Languages: – Text: English Subjects: – SubjectFull: The next-generation matrix method Type: general – SubjectFull: SVEIHR model Type: general – SubjectFull: COVID-19 vaccine Type: general – SubjectFull: MCMC method Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Paul, James – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mbalawata, Isambi – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mirau, Silas – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Masandawa, Lemjini IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Type: published Y: 2023 Identifiers: – Type: issn-locals Value: edsbas – Type: issn-locals Value: edsbas.oa |
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