Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| Authors: |
Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. Schumacher, Austin E. Aali, Amirali Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat ElHafeez, Samar Abd Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin Abdoun, Meriem Abdullahi, Auwal Abebe, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abiodun, Olumide Abolhassani, Hassan Abolmaali, Meysam Abouzid, Mohamed Aboye, Girma Beressa Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Abrha, Woldu Aberhe Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abtahi, Dariush Abualruz, Hasan Abubakar, Bilyaminu Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. Adal, Tadele Girum Girum Adane, Mesafint Molla Adeagbo, Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji Adekanmbi, Victor Aden, Bashir Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adeyomoye, Olorunsola Israel Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adra, Saryia Afolabi, Rotimi Felix Afyouni, Shadi Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Aghamiri, Shahin Agodi, Antonella Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahlstrom, Austin J. Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ajami, Marjan Aji, Budi Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Akkala, Sreelatha Al Hamad, Hanadi Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Qadire, Mohammad Al AL-Ahdal, Tareq Mohammed Ali Alalalmeh, Samer O. Alalwan, Tariq A. Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Al-Amer, Rasmieh Mustafa Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albakri, Almaza Albashtawy, Mohammed AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Alemi, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Al-Eyadhy, Ayman Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Alhabib, Khalid F. Alhajri, Noora Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Aligol, Mohammad Alijanzadeh, Mehran Aljasir, Mohammad A.M. Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Al-Marwani, Sabah Almazan, Joseph Uy Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almidani, Omar Alomari, Mahmoud A. Al-Omari, Basem Alqahtani, Jaber S. Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah Altaf, Awais Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Aluh, Deborah Oyine Alvi, Farrukh Jawad Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alwafi, Hassan Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed Aly, Hany Aly, Safwat Alzoubi, Karem H. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amindarolzarbi, Alireza Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amiri, Sohrab Ampomah, Irene Gyamfuah Amugsi, Dickson A. Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Ancuceanu, Robert Anderlini, Deanna Andrade, Pedro Prata Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anil, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Ansar, Adnan Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza Antony, Catherine M. Antriyandarti, Ernoiz Anvari, Saeid Anwar, Saleha Anwer, Razique Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Bahri, Razman Arabzadeh Arafa, Elshaimaa A. Arafat, Mosab Araujo, Ana Margarida Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Abdulfatai Aripov, Timur Arkew, Mesay Armocida, Benedetta Ärnlöv, Johan Arooj, Mahwish Artamonov, Anton A. Arulappan, Judie Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Arumugam, Ashokan Asadi-Lari, Mohsen Asemi, Zatollah Asgary, Saeed Asghariahmadabad, Mona Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Ashemo, Mubarek Yesse Ashraf, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Asika, Marvellous O. Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atreya, Alok Aujayeb, Avinash Ausloos, Marcel Avan, Abolfazl Aweke, Amlaku Mulat Ayele, Getnet Melaku Ayyoubzadeh, Seyed Mohammad Azadnajafabad, Sina Azevedo, Rui M.S. Azzam, Ahmed Y. Badar, Muhammad Badiye, Ashish D. Baghdadi, Soroush Bagheri, Nasser Bagherieh, Sara Bahmanziari, Najmeh Bai, Ruhai Baig, Atif Amin Baker, Jennifer L. Bako, Abdulaziz T. Bakshi, Ravleen Kaur Balasubramanian, Madhan Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin Bam, Kiran Banach, MacIej Bandyopadhyay, Soham Banik, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Bansal, Hansi Baran, Mehmet Firat Barchitta, Martina Bardhan, Mainak Bardideh, Erfan Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barone-Adesi, Francesco Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat Barrow, Amadou Barteit, Sandra Basharat, Zarrin Bashir, Asma'u I.J. Bashiru, Hameed Akande Basiru, Afisu Basso, Joao Diogo Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batra, Kavita Baune, Bernhard T. Bayati, Mohsen Begum, Tahmina Behboudi, Emad Behnoush, Amir Hossein Beiranvand, Maryam Ramirez, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Bekele, Alehegn Belay, Sefealem Assefa Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal Bell, Michelle L. Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Beloukas, Apostolos Bensenor, Isabela M. Berezvai, Zombor Berhie, Alemshet Yirga Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C. Bettencourt, Paulo J.G. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V. Bhaskar, Sonu Bhat, Vivek Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S. Bhatti, Rajbir Biondi, Antonio Bisignano, Catherine Biswas, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Bitra, Veera R. Bjørge, Tone Bliss, Elye Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bobirca, Anca Vasilica Bodolica, Virginia Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan Bogale, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar Basara, Berrak Bora Bouaoud, Souad Braithwaite, Dejana Brauer, Michael Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Bryazka, Dana Bulamu, Norma B. Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Burns, Richard A. Bustanji, Yasser Butt, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A. Dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano Calina, Daniela Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. Cao, Fan Cao, Shujin Capodici, Angelo Carreras, Giulia Carugno, Andrea Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Castelpietra, Giulio Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia Caye, Arthur Cegolon, Luca Cembranel, Francieli Cerin, Ester Chadwick, Joshua Chahine, Yaacoub Chakraborty, Chiranjib Chalek, Julian Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai Charalampous, Periklis Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chaturvedi, Sarika Chavula, Malizgani Paul Chen, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chi, Gerald Chichagi, Fatemeh Chien, Ju-Huei Ching, Patrick R. Cho, William C.S. Choi, Sungchul Chong, Bryan Chopra, Hitesh Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Christopher, Devasahayam J. Chu, Dinh-Toi Chukwu, Isaac Sunday Chung, Eric Chung, Sheng-Chia Cindi, Zinhle Cioffi, Iolanda Ciuffreda, Raffaela Claro, Rafael M. Coberly, Kaleb Columbus, Alyssa Comfort, Haley Conde, Joao Criqui, Michael H. Cruz-Martins, Natalia Cuadra-Hernández, Silvia Magali Dadana, Sriharsha Dadras, Omid Dahiru, Tukur Dai, Zhaoli Dalton, Bronte Damiani, Giovanni Darwesh, Aso Mohammad Das, Jai K. Das, Saswati Dashti, Mohsen Dastiridou, Anna Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto Davletov, Kairat Debele, Aklilu Tamire Debopadhaya, Shayom Delavari, Somayeh Delgado-Enciso, Ivan Demeke, Dessalegn Demessa, Berecha Hundessa Deng, Xinlei Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Deribe, Kebede Dervenis, Nikolaos Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Dhali, Arkadeep Dhama, Kuldeep Dhimal, Meghnath Dhulipala, Vishal R. Da Silva, Diana Dias Diaz, Daniel Diaz, Michael J. Dima, Adriana Ding, Delaney D. Dirac, M. Ashworth Do, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do Prado, Camila Bruneli Dohare, Sushil Dong, Wanyue D'Oria, Mario Dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dowou, Robert Kokou Dsouza, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dube, John Duprey, Joe Duraes, Andre Rodrigues Duraisamy, Senbagam Durojaiye, Oyewole Christopher Dutta, Sulagna Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian Ebrahimi, Alireza Edinur, Hisham Atan Edvardsson, Kristina Efendi, Ferry Eikemo, Terje Andreas Ekholuenetale, Michael Tantawi, Maha El Elemam, Noha Mousaad ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik Elhadi, Muhammed Elilo, Legesse Tesfaye Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmonem, Mohamed A. Elshaer, Mohammed Elsohaby, Ibrahim Zeydi, Amir Emami Bain, Luchuo Engelbert Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esposito, Francesco Estep, Kara Etaee, Farshid Fabin, Natalia Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fahimi, Saman Fakhri-Demeshghieh, Aliasghar Falzone, Luca Faramarzi, Ali Faris, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Farmer, Sam Faro, Andre Fasanmi, Abidemi Omolara Fatehizadeh, Ali Fauk, Nelsensius Klau Fazeli, Pooria Feigin, Valery L. Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Feroze, Abdullah Hamid Ferrara, Pietro Ferreira, Nuno Fetensa, Getahun Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Flavel, Joanne Foigt, Nataliya A. Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich Foroutan, Behzad Foschi, Matteo Fowobaje, Kayode Raphael Francis, Kate Louise Freitas, Alberto Fukumoto, Takeshi Fuller, John E. Fux, Blima Gaal, Peter Andras Gadanya, Muktar A. Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji Galali, Yaseen Gallus, Silvano Gandhi, Aravind P. Ganesan, Balasankar Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Garg, Naval Gautam, Rupesh K. Gazzelloni, Federica Gbadamosi, Semiu Olatunde Gebregergis, Miglas W. Gebrehiwot, Mesfin Gebremariam, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay B.B. Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru Geda, Yohannes Fikadu Georgescu, Simona Roxana Gerema, Urge Geremew, Habtamu Getachew, Motuma Erena Gething, Peter W. Ghasemi, MohammadReza Dabaghi, Ghazal Ghasempour Ghasemzadeh, Afsaneh Ghassemi, Fariba Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed Ghimire, Sailaja Gholamian, Asadollah Gholamrezanezhad, Ali Ghorbani, Mahsa Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal Ghuge, Arun Digambarrao Gil, Artyom Urievich Gill, Tiffany K. Giorgi, Matteo Girmay, Alem Glasbey, James C. Göbölös, Laszlo Goel, Amit Golchin, Ali Golechha, Mahaveer Goleij, Pouya Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goudarzi, Houman Goulart, Alessandra C. Goyal, Anmol Graham, Simon Matthew Grivna, Michal Guan, Shi-Yang Guarducci, Giovanni Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gudeta, Mesay Dechasa Guicciardi, Stefano Gulati, Snigdha Gulisashvili, David Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga Guo, Cui Gupta, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Haakenstad, Annie Habibzadeh, Farrokh Hadi, Najah R. Haep, Nils Hajibeygi, Ramtin Haller, Sebastian Halwani, Rabih Hamadeh, Randah R. Hamdy, Nadia M. Hameed, Sajid Hamidi, Samer Han, Qiuxia Handal, Alexis J. Hankey, Graeme J. Haque, Md Nuruzzaman Haro, Josep Maria Hasaballah, Ahmed I. Hasan, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Mahmudul Hasan, S.M. Hasani, Hamidreza Hasnain, Md Saquib Hassan, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassanipour, Soheil Hassankhani, Hadi Hay, Simon I. Hebert, Jeffrey J. Hegazi, Omar E. Heidari, Mohammad Helfer, Bartosz Hemmati, Mehdi Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana Herteliu, Claudiu Hessami, Kamran Hezam, Kamal Hiraike, Yuta Hoan, Nguyen Quoc Holla, Ramesh Horita, Nobuyuki Hossain, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hostiuc, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hsairi, Mohamed Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong Hu, Chengxi Huang, Junjie Huda, M. Mamun Humayun, Ayesha Hussain, Javid Hussein, Nawfal R. Huynh, Hong-Han Hwang, Bing-Fang Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Immurana, Mustapha Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja Iqbal, Afrin Islam, Md. Rabiul Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah Iso, Hiroyasu Isola, Gaetano Iwagami, Masao Iyer, Mahalaxmi Linda Merin, J. Jaafari, Jalil Jacob, Louis Jadidi-Niaragh, Farhad Jaggi, Khushleen Jahankhani, Kasra Jahanmehr, Nader Jahrami, Haitham Jain, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Jamshidi, Elham Javadov, Sabzali Javaheri, Tahereh Jayapal, Sathish Kumar Jayaram, Shubha Jee, Sun Ha Jeganathan, Jayakumar Jha, Anil K. Jha, Ravi Prakash Jiang, Heng Jokar, Mohammad Jonas, Jost B. Joo, Tamas Joseph, Nitin Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Joukar, Farahnaz Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy Jürisson, Mikk Vaishali, K. Kaambwa, Billingsley Kabir, Abdulkareem Kabir, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kalani, Rizwan Kalankesh, Leila R. Kaliyadan, Feroze Kalra, Sanjay Kamath, Rajesh Kamath, Sagarika Kanchan, Tanuj Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem Suthanthira Kannan, S. Kansal, Sushil Kumar Kantar, Rami S. Kapoor, Neeti Karajizadeh, Mehrdad Karami, Manoochehr Karaye, Ibraheem M. Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar Kasraei, Hengameh Kassebaum, Nicholas J. Kassel, Molly B. Kauppila, Joonas H. Kazemi, Foad Kazeminia, Sara Kempen, John H. Kendal, Evie Shoshannah Keshtkar, Kamyab Keykhaei, Mohammad Khajuria, Himanshu Khalaji, Amirmohammad Khalid, Nauman Khalil, Anees Ahmed Khalilian, Alireza Khamesipour, Faham Khan, Ajmal Khan, Asaduzzaman Khan, Ikramullah Khan, M. Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien A.B. Khang, Young-Ho Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh Khatab, Khaled Khavandegar, Armin Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat Khidri, Feriha Fatima Khormali, Moein Khosravi, Mohammad Ali Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood Kidane, Wondwosen Teklesilasie Kifle, Zemene Demelash Kim, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kinzel, Kasey E. Kiross, Girmay Tsegay Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Kompani, Farzad Koren, Gerbrand Korzh, Oleksii Kosen, Soewarta Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Krishan, Kewal Krishna, Varun Krishnamoorthy, Vijay Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Kubeisy, Connor M. Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kuddus, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuitunen, Ilari Kulimbet, Mukhtar Kumar, Harish Kundu, Satyajit Kunle, Kunle Rotimi Kurmi, Om P. Kusnali, Asep Kusuma, Dian Kyei, Evans F. Kyriopoulos, Ilias Vecchia, Carlo La Lacey, Ben Ladan, Muhammad Awwal Laflamme, Lucie Lahariya, Chandrakant Lai, Daphne Teck Ching Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lalloo, Ratilal Lám, Judit Lamnisos, Demetris Landires, Ivan Lanfranchi, Francesco Langguth, Berthold Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane Larson, Heidi Jane Larsson, Anders O. Lasrado, Savita Latief, Kamaluddin Latifinaibin, Kaveh Le, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Trang Diep Thanh Ledda, Caterina Lee, Munjae Lee, Paul H. Lee, Seung Won Lee, Yo Han Lema, Gebretsadik Kiros Leong, Elvynna Lerango, Temesgen L. Li, An Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Shanshan Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Ligade, Virendra S. Lim, Stephen S. Lin, Ro-Ting Lindstedt, Paulina A. Listl, Stefan Liu, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Llanaj, Erand López-Bueno, Ruben Lopukhov, Platon D. Lorenzovici, Laszlo Lotufo, Paulo A. Lubinda, Jailos Lucchetti, Giancarlo Lugo, Alessandra Lunevicius, Raimundas Lv, Hengliang Ma, Zheng Feei Maass, Kelsey Lynn MacHoy, Monika Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea M. El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd Maghazachi, Azzam A. Mahjoub, Soleiman Mahmoud, Mansour Adam Majeed, Azeem Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N. Rad, Elaheh Malakan Malhotra, Kashish Malik, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mamun, Abdullah A. Manla, Yosef Mansoori, Yasaman Mansour, Ali Mansouri, Borhan Mansouri, Zeinab Mansournia, Mohammad Ali Maravilla, Joemer C. Marino, Mirko Marjani, Abdoljalal Martinez, Gabriel Martinez-Piedra, Ramon Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio Martorell, Miquel Maryam, Sharmeen Marzo, Roy Rillera Masoudi, Alireza Mattumpuram, Jishanth Maude, Richard James Maugeri, Andrea May, Erin A. Mayeli, Mahsa Mazaheri, Maryam McGrath, John J. McKee, Martin McKowen, Anna Laura Wensel McLaughlin, Susan A. McPhail, Steven M. Mehra, Rahul Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Kamran Nasab, Entezar Mehrabi Meto, Tesfahun Mekene Mendez-Lopez, Max Alberto Mendez Mendoza, Walter Menezes, Ritesh G. Mensah, George A. Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A. Meo, Sultan Ayoub Merati, Mohsen Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Mersha, Abera M. Mestrovic, Tomislav Metanat, Pouya Mettananda, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mhlanga, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mi, Tianyue Miazgowski, Tomasz Micha, Georgia Michalek, Irmina Maria Miller, Ted R. Minh, Le Huu Nhat Mirghafourvand, Mojgan Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Mirutse, Mizan Kiros Mirza, Moonis Mirzaei, Roya Mishra, Ashim Misra, Sanjeev Mitchell, Philip B. Mittal, Chaitanya Moazen, Babak Mohamed, Abdalla Z. Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F.H. Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Sakineh Mohammadi, Soheil Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H. Mokhtarzadehazar, Peyman Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi Molinaro, Sabrina Monasta, Lorenzo Moni, Mohammad Ali Moradi, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moraga, Paula Moreira, Rafael Silveira Morovatdar, Negar Morrison, Shane Douglas Morze, Jakub Mosapour, Abbas Mossialos, Elias Motappa, Rohith Mousavi, Parsa Khaneghah, Amin Mousavi Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine Mubarik, Sumaira Muccioli, Lorenzo Mulita, Francesk Munjal, Kavita Murillo-Zamora, Efren Musa, Jonah Musaigwa, Fungai Musina, Ana-Maria Muthu, Sathish Muthupandian, Saravanan Muzaffar, Muhammad Myung, Woojae Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagel, Gabriele Naghavi, Pirouz Naik, Ganesh R. Naik, Gurudatta Naimzada, Mukhammad David Nainu, Firzan Nangia, Vinay Swamy, Sreenivas Narasimha Nascimento, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G. Naser, Abdallah Y. Nasiri, Mohammad Javad Natto, Zuhair S. Nauman, Javaid Naveed, Muhammad Nayak, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C. Ndejjo, Rawlance Nduaguba, Sabina Onyinye Negash, Hadush Negesse, Chernet Tafere Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria Nejjari, Chakib Nepal, Samata Netsere, Henok Biresaw Nguefack-Tsague, Georges Ngunjiri, Josephine W. Nguyen, Dang H. Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, QuynhAnh P. Nguyen, Van Thanh Niazi, Robina Khan Nigatu, Yeshambel T. Nikolouzakis, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikoobar, Ali Nikpoor, Amin Reza Nnaji, Chukwudi A. Nnyanzi, Lawrence Achilles Noman, Efaq Ali Nomura, Shuhei Noreen, Mamoona Noroozi, Nafise Nri-Ezedi, Chisom Adaobi Nunemo, Mengistu H. Nuñez-Samudio, Virginia Nurrika, Dieta Nutor, Jerry John Oancea, Bogdan Obamiro, Kehinde O. Odetokun, Ismail A. Odogwu, Nkechi Martina O'Donnell, Martin James Odukoya, Oluwakemi Ololade Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguta, James Odhiambo Oh, In-Hwan Okeke, Sylvester Reuben Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Okwute, Patrick Godwin Olagunju, Andrew T. Olasupo, Omotola O. Olatubi, Matthew Idowu Oliveira, Glaucia Maria Moraes Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Oluwatunase, Gideon Olamilekan Omar, Hany A. Omer, Goran Latif Onwujekwe, Obinna E. Ordak, Michal Orisakwe, Orish Ebere Orish, Verner N. Ortega-Altamirano, Doris V. Ortiz, Alberto Ortiz-Prado, Esteban Osman, Wael M.S. Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi Osuolale, Olayinka Otoiu, Adrian Otstavnov, Stanislav S. Ouyahia, Amel Ouyang, Guoqing Owolabi, Mayowa O. Ozten, Yaz Mahesh Padukudru, P.A. Fallahy, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Pan, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Pana, Adrian Panda, Paramjot Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Pangaribuan, Helena Ullyartha Panos, Georgios D. Panos, Leonidas D. Pantazopoulos, Ioannis Stoian, Anca Mihaela Pantea Parikh, Romil R. Park, Seoyeon Parthasarathi, Ashwaghosha Pashaei, Ava Passera, Roberto Patel, Hemal M. Patel, Jay Patil, Shankargouda Patoulias, Dimitrios Patthipati, Venkata Suresh Paudel, Uttam Paun, Mihaela Toroudi, Hamidreza Pazoki Pease, Spencer A. Peden, Amy E. Pedersini, Paolo Peng, Minjin Pensato, Umberto Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino Peprah, Prince Pereira, Gavin Peres, Mario F.P. Perianayagam, Arokiasamy Perico, Norberto Perna, Simone Pestell, Richard G. Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily Pham, Hoang Tran Philip, Anil K. Pierannunzio, Daniela Pigeolet, Manon Pigott, David M. Plotnikov, Evgenii Poddighe, Dimitri Pollner, Peter Poluru, Ramesh Postma, Maarten J. Pourali, Ghazaleh Pourshams, Akram Pourtaheri, Naeimeh Prabhu, Disha Prada, Sergio I. Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Prasad, Manya Prashant, Akila Purohit, Bharathi M. Puvvula, Jagadeesh Qasim, Nameer Hashim Qattea, Ibrahim Deepthi, R. Rad, Mehrdad Rabiee Radfar, Amir Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman Raee, Pourya Shahraki, Hadi Raeisi Rafiei, Alireza Alavi, Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Raggi, Cat Raghav, Pankaja Raghav Rahim, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahman, Md. Mosfequr Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahmanian, Vahid Rahmati, Masoud Rahnavard, Niloufar Rai, Pramila Raimondo, Diego Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali Rajput, Prashant Ram, Prasanna Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran Rana, Juwel Rana, Kritika Rana, Shailendra Singh Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rancic, Nemanja Rane, Amey Ranjan, Shubham Rao, Chythra R. Rao, Indu Ramachandra Rapaka, Deepthi Rasella, Davide Rashedi, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rasul, Azad Ratan, Zubair Ahmed Babu, Giridhara Rathnaiah Rauniyar, Santosh Kumar Ravikumar, Nakul Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawassizadeh, Reza Rawlley, Bharat Reddy, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Remuzzi, Giuseppe Reshmi, Bhageerathy Rezaei, Nazila Nejad, Aida Rezaei Rezaeian, Mohsen Riad, Abanoub Riaz, Mavra A. Rickard, Jennifer Rikhtegar, Reza Robinson-Oden, Hannah Elizabeth Rodrigues, Celia Fortuna Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rohilla, Ravi Romadlon, Debby Syahru Ronfani, Luca Rout, Himanshu Sekhar Roy, Bedanta Roy, Nitai Roy, Priyanka Rubagotti, Enrico De Andrade Ruela, Guilherme Rumisha, Susan Fred Runghien, Tilleye Manjula, S. Chandan, S.N. Saad, Aly M.A. Saadatian, Zahra Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed SaberiKamarposhti, Morteza Sabour, Siamak Sada, Fatos Saddik, Basema Sadee, Bashdar Abuzed Sadeghi, Ehsan Sadeghi, Erfan Saeb, Mohammad Reza Saeed, Umar Safi, Sher Zaman Sagoe, Dominic Saha, Manika Sahebkar, Amirhossein Sahoo, Soumya Swaroop Sahu, Monalisha Saif, Zahra Sakshaug, Joseph W. Salamati, Payman Salami, Afeez Abolarinwa Saleh, Mohamed A. Salem, Marwa Rashad Salem, Mohammed Z.Y. Salimi, Sohrab Samadzadeh, Sara Samodra, Yoseph Leonardo Samuel, Vijaya Paul Samy, Abdallah M. Sanabria, Juan Sanadgol, Nima Sanna, Francesca Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. Saqib, Haaris Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saravanan, Aswini Saravi, Babak Sarikhani, Yaser Sarkar, Tanmay Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo Sarode, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C. Sarveazad, Arash Sathian, Brijesh Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu Sathyanarayan, Anudeep Sayeed, Abu Sayeed, Md Abu Scarmeas, Nikolaos Schlee, Winfried Schuermans, Art Schwebel, David C. Schwendicke, Falk Selvaraj, Siddharthan Sengupta, Pallav Senthilkumaran, Subramanian Sepanlou, Sadaf G. Serban, Dragos Serván-Mori, Edson Sethi, Yashendra SeyedAlinaghi, SeyedAhmad Seyedi, Seyed Arsalan Seylani, Allen Shafie, Mahan Shah, Jaffer Shah, Pritik A. Shahbandi, Ataollah Shahid, Samiah Shahwan, Moyad Jamal Shaikh, Ahmed Shaikh, Masood Ali Shamim, Muhammad Aaqib Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran Shamsi, Mohammad Anas Shanawaz, Mohd Shankar, Abhishek Shannawaz, Mohammed Sharath, Medha Sharfaei, Sadaf Sharifan, Amin Sharifi-Rad, Javad Sharma, Manoj Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Ujjawal Sharma, Vishal Shastry, Rajesh P. 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Zangiabadian, Moein Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich Zhang, Haijun Zhang, Meixin Zhang, Yunquan Zhong, Chenwen Zhou, Juexiao Zhu, Bin Zhu, Lei Zieliñska, Magdalena Zou, Zhiyong Zyoud, Samer H. Murray, Christopher J.L. Smith, Amanda E. Vollset, Stein Emil |
| Publisher Information: |
2024. |
| Publication Year: |
2024 |
| Description: |
Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license |
| Document Type: |
Article |
| Language: |
English |
| Access URL: |
https://pergamos.lib.uoa.gr/uoa/dl/object/uoadl:3484029 |
| Accession Number: |
edsair.od......2127..abc64aaec9ad1a8ddf8eb10f6da90f1d |
| Database: |
OpenAIRE |
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