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Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer-Scale Climate Model Ensemble

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Názov: Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer-Scale Climate Model Ensemble
Autori: Estermann, Rebekka, Rajczak, Jan, Velasquez Alvarez, Patricio Andres, Lorenz, Ruth, Schär, Christoph
Zdroj: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130 (2)
Informácie o vydavateľovi: American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2025.
Rok vydania: 2025
Predmety: convection permitting climate models, regional climate models, climate scenarios, heavy precipitation, Alpine Region, climate change
Popis: This study presents a detailed analysis of the CORDEX-FPS multi-model ensemble of convection-permitting climate simulations over the greater Alpine region. These simulations cover 10-year time slices and were obtained by downscaling global climate model (GCM) projections, using regional climate models (RCMs) and kilometer-scale convection-permitting models (CPMs). Our analysis over the Alpine area agrees with previous studies in terms of projected summer precipitation changes for the end of the century, in particular regarding a decrease in mean precipitation and increases in hourly precipitation intensities. In addition, we assess projected changes over different subregions, provide analyses at monthly and seasonal basis for temporal aggregations ranging from 1 hr to 5 days, address different extreme precipitation indices, and present validation against an Alpine-scale daily precipitation data set and an hourly precipitation product based on 3 Doppler radars. The evaluation reveals that CPMs show a refinement of spatial patterns, reduce the overestimation of precipitation frequency, and better capture intense precipitation characteristics. The improvements are especially apparent on the sub-daily scale and in the summer season. Convection-Permitting Model climate projections show an increase in precipitation intensity for all seasons and across all temporal aggregations in all regions, except for the Mediterranean in summer. The projections from different CPMs qualitatively agree, despite significant differences in the GCMs circulation changes, suggesting that the increase in heavy events is primarily due to thermodynamic effects. We also present a hypothesis explaining why projections of relative changes in hourly precipitation percentiles are similar between CPMs and RCMs, despite large biases in RCMs.
ISSN:0148-0227
ISSN:2169-897X
Druh dokumentu: Article
Popis súboru: application/application/pdf
Jazyk: English
Prístupová URL adresa: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/716667
Rights: CC BY NC
Prístupové číslo: edsair.od.......150..42d8bdd69d3c68fe8a54af7dd5e53b17
Databáza: OpenAIRE
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
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  Data: Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer-Scale Climate Model Ensemble
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Estermann%2C+Rebekka%22">Estermann, Rebekka</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rajczak%2C+Jan%22">Rajczak, Jan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Velasquez+Alvarez%2C+Patricio+Andres%22">Velasquez Alvarez, Patricio Andres</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lorenz%2C+Ruth%22">Lorenz, Ruth</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Schär%2C+Christoph%22">Schär, Christoph</searchLink>
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  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130 (2)
– Name: Publisher
  Label: Publisher Information
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  Data: American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2025.
– Name: DatePubCY
  Label: Publication Year
  Group: Date
  Data: 2025
– Name: Subject
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22convection+permitting+climate+models%22">convection permitting climate models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22regional+climate+models%22">regional climate models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22climate+scenarios%22">climate scenarios</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22heavy+precipitation%22">heavy precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Alpine+Region%22">Alpine Region</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22climate+change%22">climate change</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Description
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study presents a detailed analysis of the CORDEX-FPS multi-model ensemble of convection-permitting climate simulations over the greater Alpine region. These simulations cover 10-year time slices and were obtained by downscaling global climate model (GCM) projections, using regional climate models (RCMs) and kilometer-scale convection-permitting models (CPMs). Our analysis over the Alpine area agrees with previous studies in terms of projected summer precipitation changes for the end of the century, in particular regarding a decrease in mean precipitation and increases in hourly precipitation intensities. In addition, we assess projected changes over different subregions, provide analyses at monthly and seasonal basis for temporal aggregations ranging from 1 hr to 5 days, address different extreme precipitation indices, and present validation against an Alpine-scale daily precipitation data set and an hourly precipitation product based on 3 Doppler radars. The evaluation reveals that CPMs show a refinement of spatial patterns, reduce the overestimation of precipitation frequency, and better capture intense precipitation characteristics. The improvements are especially apparent on the sub-daily scale and in the summer season. Convection-Permitting Model climate projections show an increase in precipitation intensity for all seasons and across all temporal aggregations in all regions, except for the Mediterranean in summer. The projections from different CPMs qualitatively agree, despite significant differences in the GCMs circulation changes, suggesting that the increase in heavy events is primarily due to thermodynamic effects. We also present a hypothesis explaining why projections of relative changes in hourly precipitation percentiles are similar between CPMs and RCMs, despite large biases in RCMs.<br />ISSN:0148-0227<br />ISSN:2169-897X
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  Data: edsair.od.......150..42d8bdd69d3c68fe8a54af7dd5e53b17
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: convection permitting climate models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: regional climate models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: climate scenarios
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: heavy precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Alpine Region
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: climate change
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer-Scale Climate Model Ensemble
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Estermann, Rebekka
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Rajczak, Jan
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Velasquez Alvarez, Patricio Andres
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Lorenz, Ruth
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Schär, Christoph
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          Dates:
            – D: 28
              M: 01
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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