Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF‐RCM
Gespeichert in:
| Titel: | Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF‐RCM |
|---|---|
| Autoren: | Miguel Andres Martin, César Azorín-Molina, Cheng Shen, José C. Fernández‐Alvarez, Luis Gimeno, Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano, Jinlin Zha |
| Weitere Verfasser: | Fundación BBVA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Universidad de Vigo, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Yunnan Province, Azorín-Molina, César [0000-0001-5913-7026], Vicente Serrano, Sergio M. [0000-0003-2892-518X], Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72] |
| Quelle: | Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| Verlagsinformationen: | Wiley, 2023. |
| Publikationsjahr: | 2023 |
| Schlagwörter: | Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, GCM versus WRF-RCM, Climate Change and Variability Research, Peninsula, Climate Models, Wind, Precipitation, Coupled model intercomparison project, Oceanography, Climate model, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Wind speed, Cinnarizine, Meteorology, Humans, Downscaling, Climate change, Projection, Weather, CMIP6, Surface wind speed, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Uncertainty, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, 15. Life on land, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Archaeology, 13. Climate action, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Global Methane Emissions and Impacts, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Iberian Peninsula, Climate Modeling |
| Beschreibung: | This study assessed the projected near‐surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20 km), known as WRF‐CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985–2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF‐CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under high shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF‐CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st‐century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution. |
| Publikationsart: | Article Other literature type |
| Dateibeschreibung: | application/pdf |
| Sprache: | English |
| ISSN: | 1749-6632 0077-8923 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/nyas.15063 |
| DOI: | 10.60692/wycnk-yyr78 |
| DOI: | 10.60692/1reh2-ran05 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100006761 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100004837 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100003339 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/100007406 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100011033 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100001809 |
| Zugangs-URL: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37715781 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/345315 |
| Rights: | CC BY |
| Dokumentencode: | edsair.doi.dedup.....a0c9f13a4e26d405a36b9a3b51c6607e |
| Datenbank: | OpenAIRE |
Full Text Finder 
Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstract: | This study assessed the projected near‐surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20 km), known as WRF‐CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985–2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF‐CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under high shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF‐CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st‐century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 17496632 00778923 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/nyas.15063 |