Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes: 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models
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| Názov: | Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes: 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models |
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| Autori: | Østergaard, Helena Bleken, Read, Stephanie H, Sattar, Naveed, Franzén, Stefan, Halbesma, Nynke, Dorresteijn, Jannick A N, Westerink, Jan, Visseren, Frank L J, Wild, Sarah H, Eliasson, Björn, van der Leeuw, Joep |
| Prispievatelia: | Interne Geneeskunde Vasculaire, MS Vasculaire & Endocrinologie, Circulatory Health, Nefro Vasculaire Geneeskunde |
| Zdroj: | Østergaard, H B, Read, S H, Sattar, N, Franzén, S, Halbesma, N, Dorresteijn, J A N, Westerink, J, Visseren, F L J, Wild, S H, Eliasson, B & van der Leeuw, J 2022, ' Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes : 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models ', Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, vol. 17, no. 12, pp. 1783-1791 . https://doi.org/10.2215/CJN.05020422 |
| Informácie o vydavateľovi: | Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2022. |
| Rok vydania: | 2022 |
| Predmety: | 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Renal Dialysis, Risk Factors, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications, Renal Insufficiency/epidemiology, Journal Article, Humans, Renal Insufficiency, Kidney Transplantation, 3. Good health |
| Popis: | Background and objectives Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002–2019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR 2) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019. Results During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2–10.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with c statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation. Conclusions This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors. Podcast This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3. |
| Druh dokumentu: | Article |
| Popis súboru: | application/pdf |
| Jazyk: | English |
| ISSN: | 1555-905X 1555-9041 |
| DOI: | 10.2215/cjn.05020422 |
| Prístupová URL adresa: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36332974 https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/448326 https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/files/307596980/ESKD_prediction_model_in_people_with_T2D_Ostergaard_et_al_CLEANwfigures_002_AAM.docx.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11820/e29d53f9-1d9a-4d16-bb52-3acf9e712dcd |
| Prístupové číslo: | edsair.doi.dedup.....8bc63f90dce1e55f160f5748f19f61b9 |
| Databáza: | OpenAIRE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | Background and objectives Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002–2019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR 2) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019. Results During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2–10.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with c statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation. Conclusions This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors. Podcast This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3. |
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| ISSN: | 1555905X 15559041 |
| DOI: | 10.2215/cjn.05020422 |