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The effect of climate change on spatio-temporal activity in burrowing frogs of the Smilisca group

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Bibliographic Details
Title: The effect of climate change on spatio-temporal activity in burrowing frogs of the Smilisca group
Authors: Alondra Encarnación-Luévano, J. Jesús Sigala-Rodríguez, Gustavo E. Quintero-Díaz, Marcelo Silva Briano, Octavio Rojas-Soto
Source: Acta Herpetologica (2024)
Publisher Information: Firenze University Press, 2024.
Publication Year: 2024
Subject Terms: 0106 biological sciences, 0301 basic medicine, 03 medical and health sciences, seasonal niche, QL1-991, distribution, estivation, anurans, global warming, ecological niche modeling, Zoology, 01 natural sciences
Description: Measuring the potential effects of future climate changes on the spatio-temporal variance of optimal conditions for seasonal species is a key conservation issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal patterns of optimal conditions for activity in two burrowing frogs, Smilisca fodiens and S. dentata. Ecological Niche Modeling was used to implement niche seasonality models, with calibration performed during the peak activity (July). These models were then transferred to current and future conditions for the remainder of the year, predicting future scenarios up to 2070 with an intermediate trajectory greenhouse gas concentration of 4.5 W/m2. Climate change transferability was assessed for four potential scenarios: 1) high precipitation and low temperature, 2) high precipitation and high temperature, 3) low precipitation and low temperature, and 4) low precipitation and high temperature. We examined the impact across future projected areas and analyzed geographic change trends based on latitude, longitude, and elevation. For both species, the best scenario would involve increased precipitation in the future. However, the worst-case would be a combination of reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. Due to large area loss, northern populations of S. fodiens may be highly vulnerable. Concerning S. dentata, the outlook is worrisome, with all known populations experiencing losses in most months. Area gains may not help either species since they tend to occur at elevations above their known ranges. Using a seasonal approach in spatio-temporal analysis enhances comprehension of the behavioral adaptations of seasonal species and their vulnerability to current and future climatic variations.
Document Type: Article
ISSN: 1827-9643
1827-9635
DOI: 10.36253/a_h-15232
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/a2fa9e05abef4e5bad8b12f7c66c197c
Rights: CC BY
Accession Number: edsair.doi.dedup.....795d4b89b816f5957c67aee52b55a20f
Database: OpenAIRE
Description
Abstract:Measuring the potential effects of future climate changes on the spatio-temporal variance of optimal conditions for seasonal species is a key conservation issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal patterns of optimal conditions for activity in two burrowing frogs, Smilisca fodiens and S. dentata. Ecological Niche Modeling was used to implement niche seasonality models, with calibration performed during the peak activity (July). These models were then transferred to current and future conditions for the remainder of the year, predicting future scenarios up to 2070 with an intermediate trajectory greenhouse gas concentration of 4.5 W/m2. Climate change transferability was assessed for four potential scenarios: 1) high precipitation and low temperature, 2) high precipitation and high temperature, 3) low precipitation and low temperature, and 4) low precipitation and high temperature. We examined the impact across future projected areas and analyzed geographic change trends based on latitude, longitude, and elevation. For both species, the best scenario would involve increased precipitation in the future. However, the worst-case would be a combination of reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. Due to large area loss, northern populations of S. fodiens may be highly vulnerable. Concerning S. dentata, the outlook is worrisome, with all known populations experiencing losses in most months. Area gains may not help either species since they tend to occur at elevations above their known ranges. Using a seasonal approach in spatio-temporal analysis enhances comprehension of the behavioral adaptations of seasonal species and their vulnerability to current and future climatic variations.
ISSN:18279643
18279635
DOI:10.36253/a_h-15232