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Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico

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Název: Modeling climate change impacts on the potential distribution of bighorn sheep in Mexico
Autoři: Hilda C. Zamora-Maldonado, V. Sophie Avila-Foucat, Víctor G. Sánchez-Sotomayor
Zdroj: Frontiers in Climate, Vol 7 (2025)
Informace o vydavateli: Frontiers Media SA, 2025.
Rok vydání: 2025
Témata: Environmental sciences, climate change, bighorn sheep, wildlife management, GE1-350, conservation planning, ecological niche modeling
Popis: Climate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecological niche modeling to estimate the probability of species occurrence based on bioclimatic variables under future climate scenarios. Using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and six General Circulation Models, projections are made for the period 2041–2060. This analysis is based on 280 georeferenced records of bighorn sheep occurrences and evaluates changes in temperature and precipitation, which are assumed to influence their potential distribution. Projections suggest a significant reduction in geographic distribution, with drier periods and extreme temperatures exerting the most detrimental effects. These findings pose considerable challenges for long-term conservation and management of bighorn sheep populations, as current strategies may be insufficient. The ecological niche model suggests focusing conservation efforts on Northern Baja California (Californian ecoregion) to identify potential distribution. This research emphasizes the critical need to integrate climate projections into conservation strategies to better manage the uncertainties of climate change.
Druh dokumentu: Article
ISSN: 2624-9553
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632
Přístupová URL adresa: https://doaj.org/article/a4dda65dfe344ef09b1bd5fbb4fb36b4
Rights: CC BY
Přístupové číslo: edsair.doi.dedup.....68df6d4d75a062a5008f7d17d4eff9a3
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Popis
Abstrakt:Climate change is expected to significantly reshape the geographic distribution of many species worldwide. The bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), a species of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in Mexico, is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shifts. This study applies ecological niche modeling to estimate the probability of species occurrence based on bioclimatic variables under future climate scenarios. Using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and six General Circulation Models, projections are made for the period 2041–2060. This analysis is based on 280 georeferenced records of bighorn sheep occurrences and evaluates changes in temperature and precipitation, which are assumed to influence their potential distribution. Projections suggest a significant reduction in geographic distribution, with drier periods and extreme temperatures exerting the most detrimental effects. These findings pose considerable challenges for long-term conservation and management of bighorn sheep populations, as current strategies may be insufficient. The ecological niche model suggests focusing conservation efforts on Northern Baja California (Californian ecoregion) to identify potential distribution. This research emphasizes the critical need to integrate climate projections into conservation strategies to better manage the uncertainties of climate change.
ISSN:26249553
DOI:10.3389/fclim.2025.1386632