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Gumbel Distribution-Based Flood Frequency Analysis for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Ugborodo Community, Niger Delta, Nigeria

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Názov: Gumbel Distribution-Based Flood Frequency Analysis for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment in Ugborodo Community, Niger Delta, Nigeria
Autori: Agha , C.W., Mokwenye, I.I., Atikpo, E., Nwulu , N.
Zdroj: Environmental Technology and Science Journal; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2025); 133-143
Informácie o vydavateľovi: African Journals Online (AJOL), 2025.
Rok vydania: 2025
Predmety: Gumbel distribution, Flooding, Flood frequency analysis, Hydrological modelling, Return period, Ugborodo community
Popis: Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster affecting coastal regions worldwide. Flood frequency analysis is essential for understanding the frequency and magnitude of flood events within a catchment, providing critical insights for developing effective flood management strategies. This study aims to predict the magnitude and recurrence of flood events in the Ugborodo community. Gumbel distribution which is a statistical method was used in this study to predict flood occurrences in Ugborodo community, a coastal community in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The analysis reveals the magnitude, return period, and recurrence frequency of floods in the catchment, as well as estimates of flood discharge at various exceedance probabilities or recurrence intervals. Using the Gumbel distribution method,the findings show that the expected flood increases as the return period (T) in years increases. For 2yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs, 25yrs, 50yrs, 100yrs and 200yrs return periods, the expected flood are 9688.77m3 /s, 12081.13m3/s, 13665.06m3/s, 15666.39m3/s, 17151.09m3/s, 18624.82m3/s, 20093.17m3 /s respectively. The results of this study contribute to informed decision-making and disaster preparedness in the Ugborodo community by strengthening resilience and minimizing the adverse impacts of flooding on the coastal region. The results of this study offer valuable contributions to informed decision-making and disaster preparedness in the Ugborodo community by enhancing resilience and reducing the adverse effects of flooding in this coastal region. The findings provide insights into the planning and design of flood control structures across the floodplain. Furthermore, the findings from this study serve as a resource for stakeholders, including policymakers, engineers, and community planners, to effectively assess flood risks and implement resilient infrastructure and targeted mitigation strategies tailored to the unique vulnerabilities of the area.
Druh dokumentu: Article
Popis súboru: application/pdf
ISSN: 2705-3636
2006-0459
DOI: 10.4314/etsj.v16i1.13
Prístupová URL adresa: https://www.ajol.info/index.php/etsj/article/view/298481
Rights: CC BY NC
Prístupové číslo: edsair.doi.dedup.....515495e17f530e46a0e57aa9ec4dce3d
Databáza: OpenAIRE
Popis
Abstrakt:Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster affecting coastal regions worldwide. Flood frequency analysis is essential for understanding the frequency and magnitude of flood events within a catchment, providing critical insights for developing effective flood management strategies. This study aims to predict the magnitude and recurrence of flood events in the Ugborodo community. Gumbel distribution which is a statistical method was used in this study to predict flood occurrences in Ugborodo community, a coastal community in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The analysis reveals the magnitude, return period, and recurrence frequency of floods in the catchment, as well as estimates of flood discharge at various exceedance probabilities or recurrence intervals. Using the Gumbel distribution method,the findings show that the expected flood increases as the return period (T) in years increases. For 2yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs, 25yrs, 50yrs, 100yrs and 200yrs return periods, the expected flood are 9688.77m3 /s, 12081.13m3/s, 13665.06m3/s, 15666.39m3/s, 17151.09m3/s, 18624.82m3/s, 20093.17m3 /s respectively. The results of this study contribute to informed decision-making and disaster preparedness in the Ugborodo community by strengthening resilience and minimizing the adverse impacts of flooding on the coastal region. The results of this study offer valuable contributions to informed decision-making and disaster preparedness in the Ugborodo community by enhancing resilience and reducing the adverse effects of flooding in this coastal region. The findings provide insights into the planning and design of flood control structures across the floodplain. Furthermore, the findings from this study serve as a resource for stakeholders, including policymakers, engineers, and community planners, to effectively assess flood risks and implement resilient infrastructure and targeted mitigation strategies tailored to the unique vulnerabilities of the area.
ISSN:27053636
20060459
DOI:10.4314/etsj.v16i1.13