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A Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Strategy for Early-Age Concrete Temperature Prediction Using Decoupled Physical Processes.

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Title: A Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Strategy for Early-Age Concrete Temperature Prediction Using Decoupled Physical Processes.
Authors: Hu, Xiaoyi, Gan, Min, Zhang, Liangliang, Yu, Zhou, Lin, Xin
Source: Buildings (2075-5309); Oct2025, Vol. 15 Issue 19, p3479, 21p
Subject Terms: CONCRETE, HYDRATION, THERMAL stress cracking, FINITE element method, RANDOM forest algorithms, CALORIMETRY
Abstract: Predicting early-age temperature evolution in mass concrete is crucial for controlling thermal cracks. This process involves two distinct physical stages: an initial, hydration-driven heating stage (Stage I) and a subsequent, environment-dominated cooling stage (Stage II). To address this challenge, we propose a novel two-stage hybrid modeling strategy that decouples the underlying physical processes. This approach was developed and validated using a 450-h on-site monitoring dataset. For the deterministic heating phase (Stage I), we employed polynomial regression. For the subsequent stochastic cooling phase (Stage II), a Random Forest algorithm was used to model the complex environmental interactions. The proposed hybrid model was benchmarked against several alternatives, including a physics-based finite element model (FEM) and a single Random Forest model. During the critical cooling stage, our approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.24   ° C . This represents a 17.2% improvement over the best-performing single model. Furthermore, cumulative error analysis indicated that the hybrid model maintained a stable and unbiased prediction trend throughout the monitoring period. This addresses a key weakness in single-stage models, where underlying phase-specific errors can accumulate and lead to long-term drift. The proposed framework offers an accurate, robust, and transferable paradigm for modeling other complex engineering processes that exhibit distinct multi-stage characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Complementary Index
Description
Abstract:Predicting early-age temperature evolution in mass concrete is crucial for controlling thermal cracks. This process involves two distinct physical stages: an initial, hydration-driven heating stage (Stage I) and a subsequent, environment-dominated cooling stage (Stage II). To address this challenge, we propose a novel two-stage hybrid modeling strategy that decouples the underlying physical processes. This approach was developed and validated using a 450-h on-site monitoring dataset. For the deterministic heating phase (Stage I), we employed polynomial regression. For the subsequent stochastic cooling phase (Stage II), a Random Forest algorithm was used to model the complex environmental interactions. The proposed hybrid model was benchmarked against several alternatives, including a physics-based finite element model (FEM) and a single Random Forest model. During the critical cooling stage, our approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.24   ° C . This represents a 17.2% improvement over the best-performing single model. Furthermore, cumulative error analysis indicated that the hybrid model maintained a stable and unbiased prediction trend throughout the monitoring period. This addresses a key weakness in single-stage models, where underlying phase-specific errors can accumulate and lead to long-term drift. The proposed framework offers an accurate, robust, and transferable paradigm for modeling other complex engineering processes that exhibit distinct multi-stage characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:20755309
DOI:10.3390/buildings15193479