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A new interval type-2 fuzzy approach for analyzing and monitoring the performance of megaprojects based on earned value analysis (with a case study).

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Název: A new interval type-2 fuzzy approach for analyzing and monitoring the performance of megaprojects based on earned value analysis (with a case study).
Autoři: Eshghi, Amin, Mousavi, S. Meysam, Mohagheghi, Vahid
Zdroj: Neural Computing & Applications; Sep2019, Vol. 31 Issue 9, p5109-5133, 25p
Témata: SOFT sets, FUZZY sets, EARNED value management, CASE studies, KEY performance indicators (Management), PERFORMANCE evaluation
Abstrakt: Major factors of project success include using tools of performance measurements and feedbacks. Earned value management (EVM) is a unique issue within megaprojects due to their inevitable external risks and variations. In order to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of future status estimation of megaprojects, in this paper a novel evaluation model is proposed which takes account of interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) to cope with uncertainty. In the proposed approach, in addition to cost and time criteria, a great deal of attention is paid for other important factors affecting project success, including quality, stakeholder satisfaction, safety and risk, which is computed from different perspectives. Moreover, to make informed decisions and to reduce uncertainty in assessment of megaprojects, key performance indicators (KPIs) are provided. Also, a new extension of multi-criteria decision-making method is introduced to weigh KPIs in future performance equations. Finally, the proposed IT2F-EVM approach is applied to control and estimate the future status of a real case study in a petro-refinery company. The results show that the approach can successfully address highly uncertain environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Abstrakt:Major factors of project success include using tools of performance measurements and feedbacks. Earned value management (EVM) is a unique issue within megaprojects due to their inevitable external risks and variations. In order to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of future status estimation of megaprojects, in this paper a novel evaluation model is proposed which takes account of interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) to cope with uncertainty. In the proposed approach, in addition to cost and time criteria, a great deal of attention is paid for other important factors affecting project success, including quality, stakeholder satisfaction, safety and risk, which is computed from different perspectives. Moreover, to make informed decisions and to reduce uncertainty in assessment of megaprojects, key performance indicators (KPIs) are provided. Also, a new extension of multi-criteria decision-making method is introduced to weigh KPIs in future performance equations. Finally, the proposed IT2F-EVM approach is applied to control and estimate the future status of a real case study in a petro-refinery company. The results show that the approach can successfully address highly uncertain environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:09410643
DOI:10.1007/s00521-018-04002-x