Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change.
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| Název: | Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change. |
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| Autoři: | Qiu M; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Program in Public Health, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu., Li J; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Gould CF; School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA., Jing R; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Kelp M; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Childs ML; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Wen J; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Xie Y; School of Public Policy and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA., Lin M; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA., Kiang MV; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Heft-Neal S; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Diffenbaugh NS; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Burke M; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu. |
| Zdroj: | Nature [Nature] 2025 Nov; Vol. 647 (8091), pp. 935-943. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Sep 18. |
| Způsob vydávání: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Informace o časopise: | Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0410462 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1476-4687 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00280836 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nature Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group Original Publication: London, Macmillan Journals ltd. |
| Výrazy ze slovníku MeSH: | Wildfires*/statistics & numerical data , Wildfires*/mortality , Smoke*/adverse effects , Smoke*/analysis , Climate Change*/statistics & numerical data , Environmental Exposure*/adverse effects , Environmental Exposure*/statistics & numerical data , Mortality*/trends, United States/epidemiology ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Machine Learning ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data |
| Abstrakt: | Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change 1-3 . However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.) |
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| Substance Nomenclature: | 0 (Smoke) 0 (Particulate Matter) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20250918 Date Completed: 20251127 Latest Revision: 20251201 |
| Update Code: | 20251202 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w |
| PMID: | 40967551 |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.<br />Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change <sup>1-3</sup> . However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> ) under climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> and empirically estimate smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> -mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the USA. We project that smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% confidence interval: 34,930-98,430) per year by 2050 under a high-warming scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3-7.0, SSP3-7.0)-a 73% increase relative to the estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> could reach 1.9 million between 2026 and 2055. We find evidence for mortality impacts of smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> that last up to 3 years after exposure. When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the USA <sup>4,5</sup> . Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the USA.<br /> (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.) |
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| ISSN: | 1476-4687 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w |