Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change.
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| Titel: | Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change. |
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| Autoren: | Qiu M; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Program in Public Health, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu., Li J; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Gould CF; School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA., Jing R; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Kelp M; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Childs ML; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Wen J; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Xie Y; School of Public Policy and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA., Lin M; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA., Kiang MV; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Heft-Neal S; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Diffenbaugh NS; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Burke M; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu. |
| Quelle: | Nature [Nature] 2025 Nov; Vol. 647 (8091), pp. 935-943. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Sep 18. |
| Publikationsart: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | English |
| Info zur Zeitschrift: | Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0410462 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1476-4687 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00280836 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nature Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Publication: Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group Original Publication: London, Macmillan Journals ltd. |
| MeSH-Schlagworte: | Wildfires*/statistics & numerical data , Wildfires*/mortality , Smoke*/adverse effects , Smoke*/analysis , Climate Change*/statistics & numerical data , Environmental Exposure*/adverse effects , Environmental Exposure*/statistics & numerical data , Mortality*/trends, United States/epidemiology ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Machine Learning ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data |
| Abstract: | Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change 1-3 . However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.) |
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| Substance Nomenclature: | 0 (Smoke) 0 (Particulate Matter) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20250918 Date Completed: 20251127 Latest Revision: 20251201 |
| Update Code: | 20251202 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w |
| PMID: | 40967551 |
| Datenbank: | MEDLINE |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Qiu+M%22">Qiu M</searchLink>; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Program in Public Health, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. minghao.qiu@stonybrook.edu.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Li+J%22">Li J</searchLink>; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Gould+CF%22">Gould CF</searchLink>; School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Jing+R%22">Jing R</searchLink>; Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Kelp+M%22">Kelp M</searchLink>; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Childs+ML%22">Childs ML</searchLink>; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Wen+J%22">Wen J</searchLink>; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Xie+Y%22">Xie Y</searchLink>; School of Public Policy and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Lin+M%22">Lin M</searchLink>; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Kiang+MV%22">Kiang MV</searchLink>; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Heft-Neal+S%22">Heft-Neal S</searchLink>; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Diffenbaugh+NS%22">Diffenbaugh NS</searchLink>; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Burke+M%22">Burke M</searchLink>; Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu.; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA. mburke@stanford.edu. – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%220410462%22">Nature</searchLink> [Nature] 2025 Nov; Vol. 647 (8091), pp. 935-943. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2025 Sep 18. – Name: TypePub Label: Publication Type Group: TypPub Data: Journal Article – Name: Language Label: Language Group: Lang Data: English – Name: TitleSource Label: Journal Info Group: Src Data: <i>Publisher: </i><searchLink fieldCode="PB" term="%22Nature+Publishing+Group%22">Nature Publishing Group </searchLink><i>Country of Publication: </i>England <i>NLM ID: </i>0410462 <i>Publication Model: </i>Print-Electronic <i>Cited Medium: </i>Internet <i>ISSN: </i>1476-4687 (Electronic) <i>Linking ISSN: </i><searchLink fieldCode="IS" term="%2200280836%22">00280836 </searchLink><i>NLM ISO Abbreviation: </i>Nature <i>Subsets: </i>MEDLINE – Name: PublisherInfo Label: Imprint Name(s) Group: PubInfo Data: <i>Publication</i>: Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group<br /><i>Original Publication</i>: London, Macmillan Journals ltd. – Name: SubjectMESH Label: MeSH Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Wildfires%22">Wildfires*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Wildfires+statistics+%26+numerical+data%22">statistics & numerical data</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Wildfires%22">Wildfires*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Wildfires+mortality%22">mortality</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Smoke%22">Smoke*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Smoke+adverse+effects%22">adverse effects</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Smoke%22">Smoke*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Smoke+analysis%22">analysis</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Climate+Change%22">Climate Change*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Climate+Change+statistics+%26+numerical+data%22">statistics & numerical data</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Environmental+Exposure%22">Environmental Exposure*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Environmental+Exposure+adverse+effects%22">adverse effects</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Environmental+Exposure%22">Environmental Exposure*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Environmental+Exposure+statistics+%26+numerical+data%22">statistics & numerical data</searchLink> <br /><searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Mortality%22">Mortality*</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MM" term="%22Mortality+trends%22">trends</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22United+States+epidemiology%22">epidemiology</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Humans%22">Humans</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Particulate+Matter%22">Particulate Matter</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Particulate+Matter+adverse+effects%22">adverse effects</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Particulate+Matter%22">Particulate Matter</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Particulate+Matter+analysis%22">analysis</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Machine+Learning%22">Machine Learning</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Air+Pollution%22">Air Pollution</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Air+Pollution+adverse+effects%22">adverse effects</searchLink> ; <searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Air+Pollution%22">Air Pollution</searchLink>/<searchLink fieldCode="MH" term="%22Air+Pollution+statistics+%26+numerical+data%22">statistics & numerical data</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.<br />Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change <superscript>1-3</superscript> . However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> ) under climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> and empirically estimate smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> -mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the USA. We project that smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% confidence interval: 34,930-98,430) per year by 2050 under a high-warming scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3-7.0, SSP3-7.0)-a 73% increase relative to the estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> could reach 1.9 million between 2026 and 2055. We find evidence for mortality impacts of smoke PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> that last up to 3 years after exposure. When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the USA <superscript>4,5</superscript> . Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the USA.<br /> (© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.) – Name: Ref Label: References Group: RefInfo Data: Abatzoglou, J. T. & Williams, A. P. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 11770–11775 (2016). 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